The first round of the Olympic women's soccer tournament kicks off on July 25th with all 12 teams facing off. It's a perfect day of soccer, with games starting at 11 a.m. and the final matches kicking off at 3 p.m.
With only 12 teams qualifying the competition is going to be fierce with absolutely no givens on which teams will survive and advance. Soccer has one of the highest percentages of underdogs winning, so there are even less guarantees than normal.
Group A
🇨🇦 Canada
It hasn't been the easiest road to the Olympics for the defending gold medalists, having to beat Jamaica twice in a qualifying series. Since that series against Jamaica in 2023, Canada has won or tied all of their matches, except two penalty shootouts with the United States. Like several other teams that have qualified for the Olympics, offense is a struggle. Elite goalkeeping in Kailen Sheridan has helped Canada advance and can eke out wins or at least survive until penalty kicks.
Canada has quality so the trick for the Olympics will be putting the pieces together in time to advance out of the group stage. To generate offense, Canada will want more out of their wingers, especially to free up space for Jessie Fleming. Preferring to play three in the back, Canada leaves open space on the wings that they want their attack to find. It's a delicate tactical balance that pays off when the offense is on and can score but puts immense pressure on the defense when the attack is off. Canada will need to have perfect balance to survive their group.
📍Canada v New Zealand, 11 a.m. EST
🇨🇴 Colombia
Colombia has the proven ability to win and a cheat code in Linda Caicado. The lead-up to the Olympics has been a bit of a mixed bag in terms of results. A recent loss to Ecuador joins a loss to the United States and Brazil during the Gold Cup. However, even the losses are close games, highlighting Colombia's ability to defensively keep games tight and easily within reach for a dangerous offense.
Colombia's versatility is their strong suit, as well as their ability to embrace the underdog label and convince opponents to underrate them. Caicedo is dangerous enough to warrant double-teaming and panic-defending, which frees up space for other players to utilize. Colombia understands how to play compact while stretching out the opposition and although occasionally relying on moments of individual brilliance, play consistently as a unit. It's that balance of individual to collective unity that makes Colombia so dangerous.
📍Colombia v France, 3 p.m. EST
🇫🇷 France
France has only lost to England and Spain in recent matches and won't have to play Spain in the group stage. Unlike most of the teams who qualified, France doesn't seem to have a problem finding the back of the net, even if they only win the match 1-0. The confidence and grit across the entire team make France difficult to break down as all the team needs is a single chance before locking down into an impenetrable defense.
To make a deep run, France will need to continue the run of form they're in, starting with strong defensive performances. Players like Wendie Renard, Eugenie Le Sommer, and Amandine Henry have experience and the ability to turn back the clock when a major tournament rolls around. France has incredibly strong partnerships across the pitch, making them lethal from several different combinations. If Marie-Antoinette Katoto can continue to routinely find herself on the score sheet with regularity then France will find themselves in a very good position in the group stage.
📍France v Colombia, 3 p.m. EST
🇳🇿 New Zealand
Undergoing a coaching investigation into the lead-up for the Olympics was surely not how New Zealand wanted their Olympic prep to go, but they'll be led by Michael Mayne. Ali Riley will provide leadership for the team, despite being plagued by injuries at Angel City this year and missing crucial minutes. This is a team looking to build and yet hasn't had the recent run of results they'd like, tying Zambia and losing twice to Japan in their last three matches.
Consistency and scoring are the two biggest issues facing the Ferns. New Zealand is capable of dominating possession but struggles to convert that possession into dangerous chances. The flip is: the defense is, at its best, a strength and can keep opponents scoreless, giving the offense more chances to score. The Olympics will be a big test of keeping confidence and momentum moving forward and turning an abundance of chances into a dominant scoreline.
📍New Zealand v Canada, 11 a.m. EST
Group B
🇦🇺 Australia
Unfortunately, the injury bug has caught up to Australia at an inopportune time. Caitlin Foord was pulled out of a tune-up match against Canada during warmups and Sam Kerr is missing the Olympics due to an ACL injury. Despite the difficulties, Australia will still be looking to capitalize on the momentum generated from the World Cup and the massive crowds that have been cheering them on since.
The key for Australia will be continued production from up and down the lineup. The team has yet to be shut out in 2024 and goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold shows up big time when the moments call for it. Preferring to score from the counter, Australia isn't afraid to throw what feels like their entire 11 forward, trusting that overwhelming the other team will pay off before the opposition can take the ball the other way. Despite depth across the pitch, Australia's strongest point might be their double six with Katrina Gorry and Kyra Cooney-Cross who make the all-gas offense hum in the center of the field.
📍Australia v Germany, 1 p.m. EST
🇩🇪 Germany
Germany is, well, Germany and are still led by the formidable Alexandra Popp. It's been something of a fresh start under interim head coach Horst Hrubesch, who will remain in charge until after the Olympics. There is plenty of quality on the German team, but the struggle remains playing a consistent, cohesive style of soccer. With the final third providing an occasional series of question marks, the strength for Germany lies in their goalkeeping, as well as in the depth of experience on the team.
In a huge blow to Germany, they'll be without Lena Oberdorf, who is out following an injury in a match against Austria. Not only will Germany be missing a key player, but, given the team's 3-0 loss to Iceland earlier this year, they're missing a key player in one of the most vital positions. Oberdorf cleans up a lot of Germany's messes, while also having excellent vision in advancing the ball forward, something the team struggles with at times. One injury won't make or break this German squad, but it will allow the opposition to ask significantly more questions of the midfield and will change Germany's approach.
📍Germany v Australia, 1 p.m. EST
🇺🇸 USA
The US has a history-making all-Black forward group heading to Paris and a new manager in Emma Hayes. The team is looking to prove they're still dangerous after bowing out early during the World Cup and are clearly in transition at these Olympics. No Alex Morgan, a lot of youth, and some questions around what the team identity is with the controversial inclusion of Korbin Albert. There's also the inability to score in the first half and a seemingly chronic issue with finishing plaguing the team, despite the club form that Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson, and Sophia Smith are in.
Tactically, the U.S. is strong in the back and comfortable dominating possession. The forward trio isn't the only threat on the pitch, with the US playing wide and allowing Jenna Nighswonger, Emily Fox, and Crystal Dunn to move into the attacking action with Lindsey Horan while Rose Lavelle can generate attacks on the dribble in the middle of the field. If it feels like an all-gas, no breaks team it should, and that's before introducing Lynn Williams. With Hayes in charge, the keyword for the USWNT is versatility. The finishing might come, but tinkering will definitely happen.
📍USA v Zambia, 3 p.m. EST
🇿🇲 Zambia
Barbra. Banda. She's tied for the NWSL Golden Boot and can create goals out of thin air, either through a series of individual brilliance or by being the final attacking link in a build-up sequence. And, just when a team thinks they have defended her down, Racheal Kundananji and the rest of the Copper Queens can strike in the space defending Banda creates. During Olympic qualifying, Zambia proved their ability to win 1-0 and match the pace of a 3-3, as well as respond to going down a game and a goal, before roaring back to beat Morocco by two goals.
While it might seem like Zambia's best weapon is their offense, their ability to defend until the forwards find space to attack might be the part of their game that sets them apart. The Copper Queens are disciplined and execute their game plan, even with tired legs. It's that commitment to patient defending that will pay off, with Zambia frustrating opponents and then finding the space to attack in transition. In a tournament where confidence and form matter, Zambia just might have the most confidence of the 12 teams, knowing they'll be overlooked while having the opportunity to show up in the first match against the U.S. After all, Banda is familiar with the U.S. defense, it's the same one she competes against in the NWSL.
📍Zambia v USA, 3 p.m. EST
Group C
🇧🇷 Brazil
Brazil's Olympic squad includes Marta once more for her national team and the return of Kerolin, back from an ACL injury although she has not yet played for her club. Armed with a new coach and a relatively different look from their World Cup roster, Brazil looks to make it out of the group stage. In 2024 they've beaten Japan on penalty kicks, lost to Canada on PKs, and lost 1-0 to the United States, demonstrating their standing as one of the top teams in the world.
The goal of this Olympics is obviously to attempt to finally win gold, but also to merge the veterans and youth call-ups into a cohesive team that will peak in 2027 when Brazil hosts the World Cup. Expect hiccups in that case, but this is also a Brazil both out for revenge and with an eye to the future, making them dangerous. Finishing was an issue at the World Cup, along with decision-making in the final third, something this current roster is hoping to address. Look for more advancing structure from the midfield this Olympics.
📍Brazil v Nigeria, 1 p.m. EST
🇯🇵 Japan
Japan was the only team to defeat Spain in the World Cup and it wasn't a fluke. One of the most organized, effective, and cohesive teams, somehow, Japan manages to fly under the radar in terms of being taken as a serious threat. There is not a single team that qualified who can execute a game plan more effectively than Japan and perhaps no other team has a better grasp of how to tactically match up with their opponents. Their only weakness might be penalty kicks and even then, Japan has surely managed to practice those.
Defensively difficult to pull apart, Japan does extremely well to limit the space opponents like playing in. Fluid, Japan can tactically adjust to the game plan of the opposition, frustrating them. However, it isn't all give and no take, Japan can frustrate the opposition while still executing its own attacking game plan. Dangerous with possession, without possession, on the counter, and in the build-up, Japan's confidence can rattle opponents from the opening whistle. This is a team of ruthless efficiency that will beat you at your own game.
📍Japan v Spain, 11am EST
🇳🇬 Nigeria
Nigeria might wish to have a slightly easier group (if there is one) but has navigated a similarly difficult group during the World Cup. It's that experience and the confidence that comes with it that will help Nigeria navigate Olympic group play. Familiarity with tough competition and the Olympics in general will help, despite the fact that it's been 16 years since their last appearance. It's the sweet spot of not carrying the burden of making history, but supporters grateful to see the return to the tournament.
What Nigeria will need more than a strong offense is a nearly perfect defense. Goalkeeper Chiamaka Nnadozie has proven herself excellent under pressure and continues to grow in her role. Having played at the senior level since 2018, Nnadozie's shot-stopping can provide the spark to get the forwards going. Patience, shot-stopping, and a clinical attack will help Nigeria make waves and take points at the Olympics.
📍Nigeria v Brazil, 1pm EST
🇪🇸 Spain
The reigning World Cup champions are bolstered by the return of Patri Guijarro. The national team is somehow stronger than the one that won the World Cup, but also recently suffered a 2-1 loss to Czechia in UEFA Euro Qualifiers. Spain is not unbeatable, but, knowing that might be more of a false hope to the opposition than something Spain needs to worry about. Dropping the occasional match simply reminds Spain of their total quality instead of providing a genuine chink in the armor.
Spain stretches defenses with the number of attacking threats that can crash the box at any given moment. There is no weak side and, with Alexia Putellas directing traffic, any given pass spells danger. Crisp passes, outstanding quality across the roster, and a high-octane offense mean that Spain has the ingredients to win and have the experience of putting the ingredients together. Spain wants to win, without any of the federation controversy that the team was forced to overcome at the World Cup.
📍Spain v Japan, 11am EST
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